Sunday, December 4, 2011
Saturday, July 30, 2011
More Bad News for 2011
Yesterday the Commerce Department came out with the 2nd quarter estimate of US GDP growth. The so-called "consensus" forecast of economists has predicted an anemic growth rate of 1.8%, but the actual growth rate fell to only 1.3%. You might recall that when the Commerce Department 3 months ago estimated the 1st quarter GDP growth rate at 1.8%, I predicated they would revise it downward, closer to 0%, and indeed they did revise it yesterday down to 1.4%. I predict that they will downgrade the 2nd quarter GDP growth rate from their initial estimate of 1.3% to close to 0% too.
Since GDP actually overstates national income by the amount of new investment that merely replaces old investment (sort of like calculating the income of a business without subtracting depreciation), in reality even aggregate national income isn't growing, and on a per-person basis it's clearly shrinking. We're not in any sort of recovery--we're living in the long-term recession state of the sort we haven't seen since the Great Depression.
We're likely to stay in the long-term recession economy too until the Federal Reserve Board stops inflating the money supply in a vain Keynesian attempt to trick the economy into real growth, and until we have a president and Congress willing to cut marginal income tax rates and at least slow the growth rate of federal spending.
Since GDP actually overstates national income by the amount of new investment that merely replaces old investment (sort of like calculating the income of a business without subtracting depreciation), in reality even aggregate national income isn't growing, and on a per-person basis it's clearly shrinking. We're not in any sort of recovery--we're living in the long-term recession state of the sort we haven't seen since the Great Depression.
We're likely to stay in the long-term recession economy too until the Federal Reserve Board stops inflating the money supply in a vain Keynesian attempt to trick the economy into real growth, and until we have a president and Congress willing to cut marginal income tax rates and at least slow the growth rate of federal spending.
Monday, November 15, 2010
McConnell Leads the Charge to Save Earmarks
It's no surprise that mushy moderate Mitch McConnell, with his National Taxpayer Union average of only 72%, leads the charge to save earmarks--they are the only way he can get his Kentucky-only horse socialist bailouts!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703514904575602690040454972.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_t
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703514904575602690040454972.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_t
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Hensarling Could Be an Actual (Mushy?) Conservative
Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman has dropped out of the race for the number 4 position in the House Republican leadership, the House Republican Conference Chair. She has endorsed the establishment candidate, Jeb Hensarling. So how good does Hensarling sound? For that matter, how good to the other three likely Republican leaders sound?
Hensarling has a substantially more conservative lifetime average from the National Taxpayers Union than Boehner and Cantor, 86% to their 70% ratings. Like the two mushy moderates, Hensarling's record, however, improved drastically in the three Democrat-majority years over his previous performance, in his case from 81% to 93%. The likely third-ranking Republican, Kevin McCarthy of California, bucked the Democrat tide of 2006 to win his first election and so has a record only under Democrat majorities, with an average of 81%, so he falls between the Boehner and Cantor on the one hand and Hensarling on the other hand, into the zone I call mushy conservative.
Breaking down their voting records into the period when the GOP had a majority and the period when the Democrats had a majority, moreover, we see a startling change in their voting patterns: both Boehner and Cantor actually had liberal Republican voting records (64% and 63%) when their votes actually determined spending, taxes and regulation. Boehner and Cantor rose a stunning 20 points to the mushy conservative range only when their votes, under the Democrats, could no longer determine spending, taxes and regulations. Hensarling had a smaller increase, but still 12 points, taking him from mushy conservative when his votes could determine the outcome to solidly conservative then the Democrat majority rendered his votes irrelevant. While McCarthy has no record under a Republican majority, we can see that he voted marginally worse than Boehner and Cantor under the Democrats. I've summarized their voting records below.
We don't yet know how conservatively Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman will vote, nor do we know whether Boehner, Cantor and Hensarling will revert to their previous records when their votes once again determine spending, taxes and regulations. We also don't know if McCarthy will continue to vote mushy conservative or fall down to the previous levels of Cantor and Boehner. I do know two things: that I would have felt more confident of the Republicans if they'd chosen Michelle Bachman as their 4th-ranking House leader, and that we need to watch the four of them--like a hawk.
Analysis of NTU Averages of Likely House GOP Leadership
Name Likely Position NTU Avg Avg Under GOP Majority Avg Under Dems
John Boehner (OH) Speaker 70% 64% 84%
Eric Cantor (VA) Majority Leader 70% 63% 83%
Kevin McCarthy (CA) Majority Whip 81% - 81%
Jeb Hensarling (TX) Conference Chair 86% 81% 93%
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44976.html
Hensarling has a substantially more conservative lifetime average from the National Taxpayers Union than Boehner and Cantor, 86% to their 70% ratings. Like the two mushy moderates, Hensarling's record, however, improved drastically in the three Democrat-majority years over his previous performance, in his case from 81% to 93%. The likely third-ranking Republican, Kevin McCarthy of California, bucked the Democrat tide of 2006 to win his first election and so has a record only under Democrat majorities, with an average of 81%, so he falls between the Boehner and Cantor on the one hand and Hensarling on the other hand, into the zone I call mushy conservative.
Breaking down their voting records into the period when the GOP had a majority and the period when the Democrats had a majority, moreover, we see a startling change in their voting patterns: both Boehner and Cantor actually had liberal Republican voting records (64% and 63%) when their votes actually determined spending, taxes and regulation. Boehner and Cantor rose a stunning 20 points to the mushy conservative range only when their votes, under the Democrats, could no longer determine spending, taxes and regulations. Hensarling had a smaller increase, but still 12 points, taking him from mushy conservative when his votes could determine the outcome to solidly conservative then the Democrat majority rendered his votes irrelevant. While McCarthy has no record under a Republican majority, we can see that he voted marginally worse than Boehner and Cantor under the Democrats. I've summarized their voting records below.
We don't yet know how conservatively Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman will vote, nor do we know whether Boehner, Cantor and Hensarling will revert to their previous records when their votes once again determine spending, taxes and regulations. We also don't know if McCarthy will continue to vote mushy conservative or fall down to the previous levels of Cantor and Boehner. I do know two things: that I would have felt more confident of the Republicans if they'd chosen Michelle Bachman as their 4th-ranking House leader, and that we need to watch the four of them--like a hawk.
Analysis of NTU Averages of Likely House GOP Leadership
Name Likely Position NTU Avg Avg Under GOP Majority Avg Under Dems
John Boehner (OH) Speaker 70% 64% 84%
Eric Cantor (VA) Majority Leader 70% 63% 83%
Kevin McCarthy (CA) Majority Whip 81% - 81%
Jeb Hensarling (TX) Conference Chair 86% 81% 93%
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44976.html
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Obama Wants to Wiretap the Internet
Why aren't liberals screaming bloody murder that Obama wants to wiretap the Internet?!
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/27wiretap.html?th&emc=th
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/27wiretap.html?th&emc=th
Monday, May 3, 2010
VA Congressional District 11 GOP Primary, June 8, 2010
I don't know if you've heard much about the June 8 GOP primary for Virginia's 11th Congressional district. I haven't heard much but I've seen a few things. I got some campaign literature in the mail from Herrity that uses the term “conservative” almost as often as it uses the word “the.” Today I ran across a link to a pro-Fimian website that claims that Herrity lied when he said that he's never raised taxes and that he has in fact voted with the Democrats on the Fairfax Board of Supervisors to raise your property taxes, at http://www.herrityhikedtaxes.com/. The website there also says that Herrity voted to create a new taxing district to extend the Metro out to Dulles. The new taxing district will start taxing your home in 2013 at a rate of 20 cents per $100 of assessed value. If they assess your home at $200,000, for instance, then you'd have to pay another $400 per year so that politicians and lobbyists can take the Metro from DC to Dulles on your dime.
Here are the minutes from the Fairfax County Board showing that Herrity voted for a property tax hike from $0.92 to $1.04 per $100, or an extra $0.12 per $100. Again assuming an assessment of $200,000 you'd pay an extra $240 per year on top of the $1840 you'd already be paying, or a total of $2080. That's more than a month and a half of rent for me! http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/bosclerk/summary/2009/09-04-27.pdf
On the Herrity side they're claiming that Fimian used to say that Herrity was "a conservative's conservative" but neglect to mention that Fimian called Herrity that BEFORE Herrity voted to increase your annual real state taxes by $640 (half a month's rent to me). They also claim that Fimian has no record to run on, but of course that's always true of anyone who hasn't had a previous career in politics.
I think that the worst case for Fimian, ironically, comes from Virginia Congressman Eric Cantor's endorsement of him. Both sides are treating Cantor as though he were the conservative he claims to be, but I just calculated his National Taxpayer's Union lifetime average on spending, taxes and regulation, and it comes to a paltry 69.78 out of 100. In my book that's only a D+. John McCain, whom some conservatives in the last presidential election were saying is "as bad a Obama," actually has a lifetime record of 77.88, or a C+ in my book--a whole letter grade better than Cantor. (Obama actually has a Senate average of 9.33, what I call a K+, so far below an F that Obama couldn't even aspire to get as high as an F.) Still, Herrity has a list of endorsements from a gaggle of local GOP politicians about whom I know nothing and who could be, especially here in northern Virginia, a bunch of liberal, tax-and-spend, gun-control-freak RINOs (Republicans in Name Only).
I've noticed, furthermore, that in politics friendships often transcend or ignore political ideology in ways that ideological activists like me often find hard to understand. Back in Iowa, for instance, I knew a conservative small-town business owner who loved my political columns and voted Republican in most races, but voted for an exceptionally liberal Democrat for the local state house repeatedly because the business owner went to high school with the candidate. Even though his high school chum voted for everything the business owner hated about liberal policies, the business owner proved exceedingly reluctant to consider voting for his chum's conservative opponent. I never did ask for whom he ultimately voted, but if I had to bet real money (if I had any) I'd bet that he reverted to traditional form and voted for his liberal chum over the ideologically-compatible conservative Republican. So while an endorsement from Cantor doesn't say that Fimian's a conservative like Fimian claims, it also doesn't say that Fimian's not a conservative either, and we do know that Herrity has voted to raise taxes at least twice. I’ve always thought that politician endorsements of political candidates generally carry little water (and less information).
I'll try to keep an eye out for more information. On local races of this sort without much attention from the national media (both liberal and alternative) it's harder to get real information. Much of what I’ve read has shed more heat than light, consisting mostly of name-calling and personal attacks rather than information. Based on the little I know so far, however, Fimian seems like the more conservative candidate.
Here are the minutes from the Fairfax County Board showing that Herrity voted for a property tax hike from $0.92 to $1.04 per $100, or an extra $0.12 per $100. Again assuming an assessment of $200,000 you'd pay an extra $240 per year on top of the $1840 you'd already be paying, or a total of $2080. That's more than a month and a half of rent for me! http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/bosclerk/summary/2009/09-04-27.pdf
On the Herrity side they're claiming that Fimian used to say that Herrity was "a conservative's conservative" but neglect to mention that Fimian called Herrity that BEFORE Herrity voted to increase your annual real state taxes by $640 (half a month's rent to me). They also claim that Fimian has no record to run on, but of course that's always true of anyone who hasn't had a previous career in politics.
I think that the worst case for Fimian, ironically, comes from Virginia Congressman Eric Cantor's endorsement of him. Both sides are treating Cantor as though he were the conservative he claims to be, but I just calculated his National Taxpayer's Union lifetime average on spending, taxes and regulation, and it comes to a paltry 69.78 out of 100. In my book that's only a D+. John McCain, whom some conservatives in the last presidential election were saying is "as bad a Obama," actually has a lifetime record of 77.88, or a C+ in my book--a whole letter grade better than Cantor. (Obama actually has a Senate average of 9.33, what I call a K+, so far below an F that Obama couldn't even aspire to get as high as an F.) Still, Herrity has a list of endorsements from a gaggle of local GOP politicians about whom I know nothing and who could be, especially here in northern Virginia, a bunch of liberal, tax-and-spend, gun-control-freak RINOs (Republicans in Name Only).
I've noticed, furthermore, that in politics friendships often transcend or ignore political ideology in ways that ideological activists like me often find hard to understand. Back in Iowa, for instance, I knew a conservative small-town business owner who loved my political columns and voted Republican in most races, but voted for an exceptionally liberal Democrat for the local state house repeatedly because the business owner went to high school with the candidate. Even though his high school chum voted for everything the business owner hated about liberal policies, the business owner proved exceedingly reluctant to consider voting for his chum's conservative opponent. I never did ask for whom he ultimately voted, but if I had to bet real money (if I had any) I'd bet that he reverted to traditional form and voted for his liberal chum over the ideologically-compatible conservative Republican. So while an endorsement from Cantor doesn't say that Fimian's a conservative like Fimian claims, it also doesn't say that Fimian's not a conservative either, and we do know that Herrity has voted to raise taxes at least twice. I’ve always thought that politician endorsements of political candidates generally carry little water (and less information).
I'll try to keep an eye out for more information. On local races of this sort without much attention from the national media (both liberal and alternative) it's harder to get real information. Much of what I’ve read has shed more heat than light, consisting mostly of name-calling and personal attacks rather than information. Based on the little I know so far, however, Fimian seems like the more conservative candidate.
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