Sunday, December 4, 2011
Saturday, July 30, 2011
More Bad News for 2011
Yesterday the Commerce Department came out with the 2nd quarter estimate of US GDP growth. The so-called "consensus" forecast of economists has predicted an anemic growth rate of 1.8%, but the actual growth rate fell to only 1.3%. You might recall that when the Commerce Department 3 months ago estimated the 1st quarter GDP growth rate at 1.8%, I predicated they would revise it downward, closer to 0%, and indeed they did revise it yesterday down to 1.4%. I predict that they will downgrade the 2nd quarter GDP growth rate from their initial estimate of 1.3% to close to 0% too.
Since GDP actually overstates national income by the amount of new investment that merely replaces old investment (sort of like calculating the income of a business without subtracting depreciation), in reality even aggregate national income isn't growing, and on a per-person basis it's clearly shrinking. We're not in any sort of recovery--we're living in the long-term recession state of the sort we haven't seen since the Great Depression.
We're likely to stay in the long-term recession economy too until the Federal Reserve Board stops inflating the money supply in a vain Keynesian attempt to trick the economy into real growth, and until we have a president and Congress willing to cut marginal income tax rates and at least slow the growth rate of federal spending.
Since GDP actually overstates national income by the amount of new investment that merely replaces old investment (sort of like calculating the income of a business without subtracting depreciation), in reality even aggregate national income isn't growing, and on a per-person basis it's clearly shrinking. We're not in any sort of recovery--we're living in the long-term recession state of the sort we haven't seen since the Great Depression.
We're likely to stay in the long-term recession economy too until the Federal Reserve Board stops inflating the money supply in a vain Keynesian attempt to trick the economy into real growth, and until we have a president and Congress willing to cut marginal income tax rates and at least slow the growth rate of federal spending.
Monday, November 15, 2010
McConnell Leads the Charge to Save Earmarks
It's no surprise that mushy moderate Mitch McConnell, with his National Taxpayer Union average of only 72%, leads the charge to save earmarks--they are the only way he can get his Kentucky-only horse socialist bailouts!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703514904575602690040454972.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_t
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703514904575602690040454972.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_t
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Hensarling Could Be an Actual (Mushy?) Conservative
Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman has dropped out of the race for the number 4 position in the House Republican leadership, the House Republican Conference Chair. She has endorsed the establishment candidate, Jeb Hensarling. So how good does Hensarling sound? For that matter, how good to the other three likely Republican leaders sound?
Hensarling has a substantially more conservative lifetime average from the National Taxpayers Union than Boehner and Cantor, 86% to their 70% ratings. Like the two mushy moderates, Hensarling's record, however, improved drastically in the three Democrat-majority years over his previous performance, in his case from 81% to 93%. The likely third-ranking Republican, Kevin McCarthy of California, bucked the Democrat tide of 2006 to win his first election and so has a record only under Democrat majorities, with an average of 81%, so he falls between the Boehner and Cantor on the one hand and Hensarling on the other hand, into the zone I call mushy conservative.
Breaking down their voting records into the period when the GOP had a majority and the period when the Democrats had a majority, moreover, we see a startling change in their voting patterns: both Boehner and Cantor actually had liberal Republican voting records (64% and 63%) when their votes actually determined spending, taxes and regulation. Boehner and Cantor rose a stunning 20 points to the mushy conservative range only when their votes, under the Democrats, could no longer determine spending, taxes and regulations. Hensarling had a smaller increase, but still 12 points, taking him from mushy conservative when his votes could determine the outcome to solidly conservative then the Democrat majority rendered his votes irrelevant. While McCarthy has no record under a Republican majority, we can see that he voted marginally worse than Boehner and Cantor under the Democrats. I've summarized their voting records below.
We don't yet know how conservatively Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman will vote, nor do we know whether Boehner, Cantor and Hensarling will revert to their previous records when their votes once again determine spending, taxes and regulations. We also don't know if McCarthy will continue to vote mushy conservative or fall down to the previous levels of Cantor and Boehner. I do know two things: that I would have felt more confident of the Republicans if they'd chosen Michelle Bachman as their 4th-ranking House leader, and that we need to watch the four of them--like a hawk.
Analysis of NTU Averages of Likely House GOP Leadership
Name Likely Position NTU Avg Avg Under GOP Majority Avg Under Dems
John Boehner (OH) Speaker 70% 64% 84%
Eric Cantor (VA) Majority Leader 70% 63% 83%
Kevin McCarthy (CA) Majority Whip 81% - 81%
Jeb Hensarling (TX) Conference Chair 86% 81% 93%
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44976.html
Hensarling has a substantially more conservative lifetime average from the National Taxpayers Union than Boehner and Cantor, 86% to their 70% ratings. Like the two mushy moderates, Hensarling's record, however, improved drastically in the three Democrat-majority years over his previous performance, in his case from 81% to 93%. The likely third-ranking Republican, Kevin McCarthy of California, bucked the Democrat tide of 2006 to win his first election and so has a record only under Democrat majorities, with an average of 81%, so he falls between the Boehner and Cantor on the one hand and Hensarling on the other hand, into the zone I call mushy conservative.
Breaking down their voting records into the period when the GOP had a majority and the period when the Democrats had a majority, moreover, we see a startling change in their voting patterns: both Boehner and Cantor actually had liberal Republican voting records (64% and 63%) when their votes actually determined spending, taxes and regulation. Boehner and Cantor rose a stunning 20 points to the mushy conservative range only when their votes, under the Democrats, could no longer determine spending, taxes and regulations. Hensarling had a smaller increase, but still 12 points, taking him from mushy conservative when his votes could determine the outcome to solidly conservative then the Democrat majority rendered his votes irrelevant. While McCarthy has no record under a Republican majority, we can see that he voted marginally worse than Boehner and Cantor under the Democrats. I've summarized their voting records below.
We don't yet know how conservatively Tea Party favorite Michelle Bachman will vote, nor do we know whether Boehner, Cantor and Hensarling will revert to their previous records when their votes once again determine spending, taxes and regulations. We also don't know if McCarthy will continue to vote mushy conservative or fall down to the previous levels of Cantor and Boehner. I do know two things: that I would have felt more confident of the Republicans if they'd chosen Michelle Bachman as their 4th-ranking House leader, and that we need to watch the four of them--like a hawk.
Analysis of NTU Averages of Likely House GOP Leadership
Name Likely Position NTU Avg Avg Under GOP Majority Avg Under Dems
John Boehner (OH) Speaker 70% 64% 84%
Eric Cantor (VA) Majority Leader 70% 63% 83%
Kevin McCarthy (CA) Majority Whip 81% - 81%
Jeb Hensarling (TX) Conference Chair 86% 81% 93%
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44976.html
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Obama Wants to Wiretap the Internet
Why aren't liberals screaming bloody murder that Obama wants to wiretap the Internet?!
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/27wiretap.html?th&emc=th
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/27wiretap.html?th&emc=th
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