US Loses 85,000 More Jobs in December 2009

I've been saying for maybe a year now that the economy likely would get worse before it got better. The trouble started back in the middle of the decade when the Federal Reserve System, under Alan Greenspan, caused the money supply to grow substantially faster than the real economy was growing. Much of the excess money, driven by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac housing subsidies, wound up in real estate, artificially inflating real estate prices, creating a bubble that eventually had to burst. It did burst, as you probably know, starting in 2006 with the weakest borrowers in the so-called sub-prime mortgage market. The collapse of the sub-prime market led the bubble to burst in the rest of the housing market, dragging down the economy.

Starting in late 2007 the Federal Reserve System, then (and now) under Ben Bernanke, tried to stop what seemed like a likely recession caused by the first monetary bubble by--yes, that's right, by creating a second monetary bubble. It's a bit like trying to stop a cocaine addict from going through withdrawal by giving him more cocaine. I thought back in 2007 that we might have avoided a recession, but once Bernanke started inflating the money supply drastically faster than the real economy was growing, I predicted that we would have the very recession that he was trying to prevent.

Bernanke (and surprisingly, Greenspan) are Keynesian economists. Keynesian theory teaches that government can wave a magic wand and create new "aggregate demand" out of thin air. (We'll have more on Keynesian economics for those of you in my macroeconomics class.) By inflating the money supply, the government can create the short-term appearance that aggregate demand has risen, but when people figure out that it's just more money chasing the same level of goods and services, the monetary bubble bursts and rather than having more aggregate demand we actually end up with less of it. So by pursuing the fatally-flawed Keynesian polices to try to prevent the recession, Bernanke actually caused (or helped cause) the very recession he wanted to prevent.

Fiscal policy has the same effect as monetary policy: all the trillions of dollars of "TARP" and "stimulus" spending passed by the Democrats in Congress and supported by Republican President Bush and Democratic President Obama simply helps circulate all the new money that the Fed creates, making the bubble--and the bust--even bigger. You might recall those skyrocketing oil and gas (and food) prices in 2007, which hurt the auto and airline industries. The skyrocketing prices came directly from the Bernanke-Bush polices of inflate and spend. The stock market bubble of 2007, which alas for John McCain burst right after the Republican convention, also came directly as a result of the Bernanke monetary inflation. Obama and Bernanke have followed the same policies of inflation and government spending that led to the real estate and stock market bubbles, so it's not surprising that more than two years after Bernanke started them to try to stop the downward spiral caused by Greenspan's earlier inflation, we remained mired in recession.

Bernanke has testified before Congress because he's up for re-appointment and apparently he wants the job again very much. And has he learned his lesson, the lesson for which we paid so dearly in the 1970s and early 1980s, that government can't spend and inflate the economy into real growth? No. He sees his fatally-flawed policies, on the contrary, as having saved the economy from even worse. So more than two years after he started the current mess to try to clean up the mess caused by his predecessor, I'm still saying that I wouldn't be surprised if things get even worse before they get better.

You can read more about the bad employment news at
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/09/business/economy/09jobs.html?th&emc=th

Unemployment Rose in September

This report came out a while ago and I've been meaning to share it. Despite the claims by the Federal Reserve Board that the recession has ended, the official unemployment rate rose in September, and not because the number of people who reentered the workforce exceeded the number of new jobs the economy created. The economy actually lost 263,000 jobs in September, worse than the 201,000 loss of August.

I've been saying for more than a year now that the Fed's inflationary policies, a vain Keynesian attempt to trick the economy into real growth by inflating the money supply, were only making things worse, as are the trillion-dollar Bush-Obama big business corporate bailouts, which crowd out real investment in efficient businesses. I've predicted for months now that things would get worse before they get better, and the prediction certainly proved true in September. Notice that the real unemployment rate reached 17%, the highest ever since the BLS started measuring the rate.

If the government stops trying to "help" the economy with more bailouts, borrowing and inflation, it will eventually recover on its own, but government could speed the recovery by spending less and cutting marginal tax rates. Presidents Kennedy and Reagan both got impressive rates of growth after making large cuts in marginal income tax rates. I don't see the current president and Congress cutting marginal tax rates or reducing the growth rate of federal spending (much less actually cutting spending, which hasn't happened since the 1930s) so I think we're still in for a long, bitter recession.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/02/jobless-rate-climbs-percent-september/

Official Unemployment Rate Always Understates Real Unemployment

Some of my friends on the right have made a great deal of hay over the fact that real unemployment exceeds the official unemployment rate calculated by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). I can't say I blame them, as people on the left made hay about the same thing during, for instance, the Reagan recession in the early 1980s. I want to stress, however, that because the official unemployment rate always includes only those actively seeking jobs, it always understates the real rate of unemployment (as students in my macro class will learn later this semester). So what's true now was true last year under Bush, during the early 1980s under Reagan, and for that matter during the Great Depression under FDR. Whatever its other faults, there's no plot by the Obama administration to use the BLS to hide the real rate of unemployment.

The official BLS figures understate the rate of unemployment not just during recession but even during economic expansion. Since people have a harder time finding a job during a recession, however, a recession produces more discouraged workers, and thus a larger share of unemployed who don't get counted in the official BLS unemployment rate. So the official unemployment rate clearly understates unemployment more during a recession, and the deeper the recession, the more the BLS rate understates the real rate of unemployment. Depending on which other measure you use, the real rate of unemployment now ranges anywhere from about 11% to about 16%. So there's not doubt that many Americans are feeling the pain of the recession. Just remember that you can't compare the 11% or 16% today to the official BLS unemployment rate in some previous recession; you need to compare the 11% or 16% to the real rate of unemployment in a previous recession. Even by comparison with the real unemployment rates of previous recessions, the current one looks bad--but again, not remotely as bad as during the Great Depression.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/07/us/07worker.html?th=&adxnnl=1&emc=th&adxnnlx=1252317646-vapUsPyebG26pCq7UAoEnw

Unemployment rate surged to 9.7 percent in August

Toward the end of the Bush administration, President Bush and Congress started spending billions to bail out financial institutions and auto companies in a vain Keynesian attempt to "stimulate" the economy by taxing away more of your income and then giving some of it back to you. President Obama and Congress have continued the vain Keynesian stimulus efforts. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, has cooperated in the Bush-Obama Keynesian efforts by printing new money like it's going out of style (which it often does, in the form of inflation, when the Fed creates too much of it). Yet we see that despite all of these Keynesian efforts to trick the economy into real growth--or perhaps because of these Keynesian efforts--the economy remains mired in the worst recession since the early 1980s, and, by some measures, since the Great Depression. While the economy isn't suffering anywhere near the contraction in the number of jobs or real incomes per person as it did during the Great Depression--and people shouldn't get hysterical that it will, either--we do have plenty of economic pain to go around.

We could, as both President Kennedy and President Reagan did, get Congress to slash marginal federal income tax rates, increasing the incentive to work, save and invest, thereby stimulating real economic growth as we saw in both the 1960s and 1980s. Obama and Congress, however, seem determined to hold on to as much of your hard earned income as possible, so it seems unlikely we will see cuts in marginal tax rates, much less large cuts. So the near-term prospect for the economy remains bleak.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/05/business/economy/05jobs.html?th&emc=th

US Loses 663k Jobs in March; Unemployment 8.5%

I'm afraid that the month of March brought more bad economic news: the US economy suffered a net loss of 663,000 jobs. The 663,000-job loss is a net loss, meaning that employers cut 663,000 more jobs than they created, and that actually more than 663,000 people lost their jobs. The new net job loss brought the US unemployment rate up to 8.5%, the highest since 1983, during the last great recession.

While 8.5% unemployed means 91.5% still or newly employed, the increased rate and the net job losses--5.1 million since December of 2007--gives the 91.5% reason to fear, even though most of them will never lose their jobs. Militating against the fear I see only three small pieces of good news at the moment. Consumer spending has risen now for two months in a row; US factory orders rose for the first time after six months of steady declines; construction and housing sales beat the forecasts of most economists, as housing prices have finally started to fall substantially (encouraging more sales and thus more construction), as they need to after the bursting of the Fed's horrible real estate bubble. I can't say though that the economy won't shed more jobs on net and that the unemployment rate won't rise further before the economy hits bottom and starts to improve again.

I can say what caused the recession--at least primarily what caused it. Earlier in the decade, Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, caused the Fed to inflate the money supply at a rate well in excess of the growth rate of the real economy. Thanks to the massive and political loan guarantees by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy votes from poor people who couldn't afford to pay back the loans, much of the money went into the real estate market, driving up home prices, and making homeowners feel wealthier.

Since most of the money went in to real estate purchases, most of it did not go into buying consumer goods, and thus the inflation caused by the Fed's excessive expansion of the money supply did not show up in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), so most people did not realize at first that we were experiencing covert inflation. Since most of the money went into purchasing existing homes, the sales of which do not go into computing Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the most common measure of goods and services produced by the economy, the covert inflation did not show up even in a broader measure of inflation like the GDP Implicit Price Deflator.

A few people tried to warn about the inflation, but most of us did not listen. I freely confess that I fall into the category of those who looked at the CPI and the GDP Deflator and saw no inflation. The major news media publish the CPI regularly, and I didn't take the time to look at the growth rate of M1 or M2, the most common measures of the money supply. The people yelling about inflation were right, and I was wrong back in 2006. I will say that I did tell my economics students about the warnings I heard, and that by 2007 I had started to heed the warnings. The real estate bubble had clearly started to burst by 2007, which in turn started to drag down or at least slow down other parts of the economy, especially home construction and related industries.

By 2007 Greenspan had finished his second term as Fed Chairman, and President W. Bush had appointed Bernanke to replace Greenspan. People were saying of Bernanke--like they had of Greenspan--that he was a monetarist (meaning that supposedly he understood that growth of the money supply at a rate in excess of the rate of growth of the real economy produces inflation). I looked at Bernanke's textbook, which you can read free online, and found out that it has an even stronger Keynesian bias than the textbook I'm required to use for the economics classes I teach. I don't know where anyone ever got the idea that Bernanke is a monetarist, but as the real estate bubble continued imploding before our very eyes in 2007, Bernanke began to run the worst sort of Keynesian inflationary policy, buying tens and even hundreds of billions of new dollars worth of US Treasury bills (short term debt) and US treasury bonds (long term debt) to try to drive down nominal interest rates, injecting tens and eventually hundreds of billions of dollars of excess money into the economy. (I also started to read Greenspan's autobiography at the time, and discovered within the first two chapters that contrary to common belief, Greenspan is a Keynesian expansionist too, despite once having been in the anti-Keynesian inner circle of Ayn Rand many decades ago.)

In case you're not familiar, Keynesian economic theory believes that government can cure a recession through inflating the money supply with deficit spending--that is, by government spending more than it collects in taxes. Government, according to Keynesian theory, can wave a magic wand and create out of thin air new "aggregate demand" to push up GDP. Keynesians do not understand that everything government spends, it must take from someone else, either through taxation or borrowing. Borrowing from the Fed (meaning that the Fed buys Treasury debt) just means more dollars chasing the same volume of goods and services, driving up the average level of prices--in other words, causing inflation. Inflation, which drives down the value of your dollar, is just a covert tax on every dollar you own.

I warned my economics students in 2007 that if Bernanke tried a Keynesian inflation of the money supply, he would just cause inflation, and not stop the bursting of the real estate bubble--and that's just what happened. While the news media were quick to blame cartels and "oligopolies" for the surge in food and gasoline prices that followed the Fed's inflation of the money supply, the growth in money supply caused the surge in prices as predicted. For a long while the Bernanke inflation also pushed up stock prices, which do not go into either the CPI or the GDP Deflator, so while both indexes rose, they still understated the true amount of inflation Bernanke was causing. You might recall, however, that the rising food and gas prices caused a great deal of pain to consumers and producers alike. Airlines and auto manufacturers suffered greatly, as people cut back drastically on both traveling by air and buying gas-guzzling SUVs.

Just as Greenspan's inflationary real estate bubble eventually had to burst, so too did Bernanke's inflationary food, gas and stock bubbles. The food and gas bubbles burst first, and gas prices fell by half in a very short period--in a shorter time than it had taken them to rise that amount in the first place. By the time the gas bubble burst though it was too late for the airlines and auto companies to avoid severe contraction, as they'd already had a recessionary year. When the stock market finally caught on, it too collapsed virtually overnight. By "collapsed" I mean that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell back at first to 2003 levels. Not until 2009 did it fall all the way back to 1997 levels. In 2008 the stock market reached artificially inflated levels, but most people didn't realize it, and felt wealthier, so that when the bubble burst, they felt poorer, even though the value of their stocks, on average, still equaled what it had reached been back in 2003, when people felt wealthy because their stocks had climbed so much since, say, 1997.

Late in 2008 President Bush and the Democratic majority in Congress responded to the stock market crash by trying yet more Keynesian deficit spending. The Fed under Bernanke, without any legal authority, assisted by bailing out AIG directly itself, and then indirectly (and legally) by buying all the Treasury debt needed to allow the Bush-Democrat trillion-dollar bailout for the financial industry and the smaller auto bailout, both done in 2008. In 2009 President Obama and an even larger Democratic majority in Congress have continued and expanded the Bush-Democrat Keynesian policies with first a $410 billion Keynesian "stimulus" bill passed a few weeks ago, and now with a budget that calls for a $2 trillion dollar federal budget deficit for 2010 alone, and $10 trillion dollars of deficits in the near future.

Obviously the Obama-Bush-Democrat Keynesian policies are not stopping the recession. By taking income out of productive hands and putting it into the hands of politicians and politically-connected executives and labor unions, the fatally-flawed Keynesian inflationary policies actual worsen the recession. So as the Keynesian policies remove the incentives for productive people to save, invest, work and create jobs, I expect the economy to get worse before it gets better. I am just hoping that the Keynesian polices aren't bad enough to prolong this recession for years. Even a deep recession like the one in the early 1980s didn't last for years. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP fell from 1981 to 1982, but by 1983 had already risen above its 1981 level. Because of large cuts in our marginal income tax rates that President Reagan got Congress to pass starting in 1981, disposable income, perhaps the best measure of economic well-being (and certainly better than GDP), actually rose in 1982 over 1981, so that for those who had jobs, economic conditions actually improved during 1982, deep recession notwithstanding. Unlike Reagan, however, Obama and many congressional Democrats would like to raise tax rates, sadly, so I would expect disposable income to decline along with GDP during the Bush-Obama recession.

Currently the unemployment rate stands at 8.5%, the highest since 1983, when it averaged 9.4% for the year as a whole. In 1982 the unemployment rate averaged 9.7%, and for a time in 1982 even exceeded 10%. In fairness to the earlier recession, however, I have to note that unemployment stood at 7.6% already in 1981 before the 1982-1983 recession even started, but had fallen to nearly 4% prior to the current Bush-Obama recession. So while the unemployment rate hasn't risen as high this time (yet), it has risen much more than it did during the 1982-1983 recession. There is no doubt that we're currently suffering through a bad recession.

Government could really help the economy if government would stop increasing spending and regulations, and cut marginal tax rates, which would increase the incentive to work, save, invest and create new jobs. Restraining the growth of government spending and regulations, combined with large cuts in marginal tax rates, allowed the worst recession since the Great Depression, 1982-1983, to turn into what became the longest peacetime expansion in US history, 1983-1990 (and is still the second-longest peacetime expansion in US history). With the anti-growth policies of Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush, Obama and the Democratic Congress, however, I think we're more likely to see the longest downturn since the Great Depression instead.

You can read more about the bad news at http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/03/jobless-rate-jumps-percent-k-jobs-lost/.